Is Civil War Coming for the United States?
On the afternoon of January 6th 2021, protesters gathered outside the United States capitol building. They were frustrated about the continuing lockdown, the election, and the direction of the country. Certainly some of them were on the “March to Save America” and angry over President Trump losing the election.
and then for still unexplained reasons, hundreds of protestors stormed past armed guards into a capital building at around 1 pm. People began looting and vandalizing the building. A riot was declared an hour later. The capital police responded by evacuating senators from the building and they requested reinforcement from the National Guard.
President Trump declined to send reinforcements and the occupation continued with reports of police officers flashing their badge to enter the Capitol building. Someone constructed a gallows with a noose. Other people were reported to carry Confederate Flags.
The police regrouped with riot gear and stormed the capitol. They fired tear gas and smoke grenades to clear the crowds. Three hours later they retook the capitol building and five hours later the grounds were clear.
Later in the evening two pipe bombs were discovered in a parked car.
The insurrection sent a shock through a forgotten schism of the American Confederacy.
Who are the Confederates?
160 years ago the Confederate states fought and lost to break away from the Union over Slavery.
At the time of the conflict the south was a very different place than it is today. The agriculture of cotton, tobacco and other crops was the only economic asset of their economy. Also these crops were cultivated entirely by slave labor. In this analogy the slaves were the economic assets of the south in the same way that industry was the economic asset of the north. Slave labor could have been more valuable than the land they cultivated.
Congress and other interests in the north had fought for years to eliminate slavery. They wanted to eliminate the practice either on moral grounds or to protect the economic interests of workers.
Then in 1820 Congress reached the Missouri Compromise. The agreement admitted Missouri to the Union as the 24th state in 1821. When the agreement was proposed, Rep. James Tallmadge of New York proposed an amendment to ban slavery. While the amendment succeeded in the House, it died in the Senate. Congress adjourned and Missouri joined the Union.
Yet the bargain further pushed a wedge into the Union over the government’s authority to restrict slavery. There are some historians that say that states rights were the original imperative for the war. Decide for yourself.
It only got worse in 1848 with the end of the Mexican American War. The usurping of the 1.3 million square miles of new terrority only amplified the conflict over how the land should be governed. Southerners feared that the exclusion of slavery could collapse their enterprise.
Then the dam broke in 1860 with the election of President Abraham Lincoin, the first American leader to explicitly oppose slavery. South Carolina, Mississippi, Florida, Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, and Texas split away from the Union. The rest is history.
Why are the Confederates still alive?
Any writer knows that words have meaning and symbols have power.
Today the display of a Confederate flag could be taken as a vulgar show of racism, and surely some of it is. But the flag is also a symbol of a political identity. For some it is still a proud symbol of southern identity. A collective middle finger towards Washington and the view that over the decades that DC has corrupted the demographic, economic, and moral character of the country. You can’t deny that the flag is an important symbol of heritage and heroism for its followers, win or lose.
In 2011 a CNN poll uncovered that 23% of people are sympathetic to the cause but it couldn’t be determined where they live. A Pew Research Center the same year found that 38% of people consider it appropriate for public officials to praise Confederate leaders. They also found that people that identify as white and southern are much more likely to hold Confederate views with 13% considering it negative.
What is the worst that can happen?
I don’t claim to predict the future like a wizard, but I know that this schism can only grow. The last revolt at the capitol shows that the anger is still alive today. The uprising further showed how unfit the government was for a real full-scale strife should another explode. My belief is that many in the south would still happily coup again given the opportunity.
What can be done?
In our modern divisive politics, it can be easy to dismiss the Confederate loyalists as narrow minded losers that don’t know that they have been cancelled. But that would be a mistake. The thriving Confederate culture and capitol storm show that it is still a potent political schism. But maybe there is a way to defuse the bomb. I don’t believe that manipulation or shaming will work. Yet Jonathan Haidt of the University of Virginia may have a solution. Jonathan’s studies of human nature have shown that people are intuitive, not rational. People choose positions based on sentiment and they justify the choices later.
For example, is it wrong to have sex with your sister?
Why?
You can’t answer why.
This is because your sentiment is built on a set of moral pillars built in your youth with care, fairness, liberty, loyalty, authority, and sanctity being common pillars. The pillars of community, sin, divinity, hierarchy, degradation, and tradition are also present. Competing moral systems aren’t ignorant any more ignorant than my taste for Barbeque is.
If you are a Democrat, then equality is your moral pillar. Where as faith, patriotism, valor, chastity, law, and order form the moral pillars for Republicans. I imagine that tradition and community are still very important to the Confederates.
In Haidt’s view both parties could benefit from learning from each other.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not advocating insurrection! But maybe it’s time for compromise. The last time the military guarded an inauguration was for President Lincoln.
